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New Yorkers will find out who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who runs and protects the nation's largest city at a time when Donald Trump has threatened to send military troops to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has matched two distinctly opposing Democrats against one another. The contest has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by alleged racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has attracted global notice. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the former Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the support of wealthy contributors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has run on a agenda of affordability and promised to halt rent increases for about two million city residents, has led Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys taken in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

However, the former governor, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has made it clear he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has trashed Mamdani's goals as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after sharing an artificial intelligence video that featured a slew of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be critical to the path that the party, struggling in its response to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his bid will be compelled to address a platform that has resonated with voters' anger at inequality, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to embrace at least a portion of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an enthusiasm within the party arguably not seen since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House in 2016.

Conversely, should Cuomo, who had been predicted to win easily in the Democratic primary, complete a remarkable comeback victory, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of considered, uninspiring resistance – a strategy that has infuriated the party base. A New York rejection of the progressive's optimistic platform could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to remain in the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in New York appear to favor the progressive agenda. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. The candidate's engaging content on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for the city and his readiness to actually get out and meet people in the city has drawn an force of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

Yet, the former governor, 67, continues to fight. And with the risks against him, the former governor has turned to negative campaigning in the final days.

After spending months throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, the independent has concentrated on targeting Mamdani directly. He has labelled his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on conservative media for an interview with a rightwing host, where Cuomo claimed New York “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It reached a nadir last week, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has sent the national guard to Washington DC and threatened to take similar action to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to Trump in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to elect the independent into office, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should not have reached to this. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his campaign for mayor in October 2024, few had known him, and in reality, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the contest in March 2025 and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who seemingly held all the advantages. The classic political insider, he had married a Kennedy and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in 2011, seventeen years after his father, the former governor, stepped down from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was elected to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Still, the candidate has faced difficulties in the final phase, after video emerged suggesting him implying the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the recording, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in 2023. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, suggested he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

Mamdani responded to the independent's terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first ran for the legislature, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, he said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd