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Mounting apprehensions exist over the potential of military engagement involving Horn of Africa neighbours, the Ethiopian government and the Eritrean government, as aggressive rhetoric has ratcheted up in the last month.

What Has Ethiopian Officials Said?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, calls for entry to the sea coast through Eritrean territory has provoked a intense verbal exchange.

The Ethiopian leader first openly declared in 2023 that his government's sea access was an existential matter, comments that Eritrean authorities ignored.

Ties between the both governments have regularly been difficult. Following a decades-long struggle for freedom, the Eritrean state, which has a long Red Sea coastline, legally broke away from Ethiopia in 1993, leaving it without sea access.

Five years later, a military clash broke out in which numerous people lost their lives.

Current Comments from Ethiopia's Government

Abiy and military leader the army commander have publicly asserted sovereignty of Eritrea's southern port of Assab – about 60km from the border - and hinted at the wish to capture it through military means.

In early September, the Prime Minister said Ethiopia's "error" of losing access to the Red Sea as a due to Eritrean independence would be "rectified in the future".

Ethiopia's ambassador to neighboring Kenya, ex-military officer Bacha, said that the port was "Ethiopian property" and would be given back "by force".

Eritrea's Response to the Threats

In the face of continuous challenges from Ethiopia, Eritrea's reaction has been restricted to concise remarks on online platforms from Communications Head Yemane Gebremeskel.

The minister has dismissed Ethiopia's push for sea access calling it "risky" and a "negative policy" of "expansionism" – a approach of reclaiming lost territory.

Government spokespeople cautioned on 16 September that efforts to validate "obvious provocation" would have significant repercussions for the Ethiopian government and its regional partners and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Military Preparations on the Border

So far, there are little evidence of large-scale army activities in the frontier regions between the neighboring states.

Nevertheless, in Ethiopia, national TV has broadcast graduation ceremonies of thousands of cadets at multiple army bases.

The head of staff section of the military, General Hachalu, recently said in an conversation that the army was in a "secure situation" as "tens of thousands of young people" were entering service, which he said was "a message to our opponents".

Previous Roots of the Conflict

For over fifty years from the late 19th century, Eritrea was ruled by colonial powers.

After World War II, it was then managed by the UK forces before evolving into a integrated region of the Ethiopian empire.

Yet in the early 1960s the ruler cancelled this arrangement and the region became completely integrated into Ethiopia.

A thirty-year armed struggle followed, concluding with the government's loss in the early 1990s. Independence was then approved by the population in a referendum in 1993.

For a few years in the 1990s, there were positive ties between the governments in Ethiopia's capital and Eritrea's capital, but they disagreed over the specific demarcation of their common border, resulting in conflict in 1998.

Though this ended in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was partially applied, and the both countries continued at odds.

This situation improved in 2018, when the Prime Minister made overtures to Eritrean President President Isaias. The two agreed to a statement that the conflict was concluded – a action that won the Prime Minister the prestigious award.

The both administrations were then cooperators in Ethiopia's recent internal conflict in the northern region.

But ties have subsequently deteriorated once more.