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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward pattern. It commonly acts as a kind of apology. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the largest turnaround receives the prize. However, it creates an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior leadership or simply the greatest upset.

But the latest field is distinctly different. The list of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference winners fading and recent underperformers ascending in unison. During an ordinary year, a coach leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in such a wild and fun season, he's up against several other elite candidates.

Here is how the projected ballot could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his special ability. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an offense built entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide-open targets everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to conjure magic out of nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense hype he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a normal season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But this is not a normal year!

Where Johnson's case runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. But Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has engineered a rapid turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the intangibles stuff, which was not a guarantee following his initial public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on newbies. From the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. Yet he has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

After an initial hot start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting reliable ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has fallen away since that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just a single place ahead of peers.

Still