Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has has something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
