🔗 Share this article A Prediction Market Trader Profited $436K on Wagers Predicting Venezuela's Political Shift. In this photo illustration, a Polymarket logo is seen displayed on a smartphone. A bettor profited close to $500,000 on the ouster of Venezuela's president immediately preceding it was publicly declared, leading to inquiries about potential gains made from inside knowledge of the US operation. Market Movement in Wagers Bets placed on the crypto-platform, a blockchain-based service, that the Venezuelan president would be no longer in control by the close of the month increased in the period preceding President Donald Trump stated on January 3rd that the president had been seized. One account, which registered on the site in December and made four bets, all on the Venezuelan situation, profited a total of $nearly half a million from a modest bet of $32.5K. Who placed the bet is a mystery. The anonymous account had only a string of letters and numbers for identification. Market Signals Before News Break Market statistics shows that traders put the odds of the president's removal at just a low 6.5 percent in the late afternoon of the prior Friday. Yet the odds had climbed to eleven percent by the end of the day and skyrocketed in the early hours of January 3rd, suggesting a rapid movement in market sentiment immediately prior to the official statement was made. "This particular bet has all the hallmarks of a trade based on inside information," commented Dennis Kelleher. Several of other individuals also made large payouts from predicting the capture. Legal Questions Grows Elected officials are starting to take note. A new rule introduced on the start of the week would prevent government employees from participating on prediction markets if they have "insider details" related to a bet. Industry Context Event-driven betting sites have become increasingly popular in recent years, with users able to predict everything from sports to politics. The industry faced scrutiny under the previous administration. Yet it has received a warmer welcome during the Trump presidency. Trading on insider information is illegal in the securities markets, but there are more ambiguous rules in the prediction market space. An official representative for another major platform said their site "has clear rules against insider trading of any form."